Odds firmly in Rory McIlroy’s favour to claim sixth Race to Dubai title

Rory McIlroy’s last competitive act of a long season – his 27th tournament, one in which he won three times and posted 12 top-10s – has taken him to a familiar destination with senses of deja vu: the Northern Irishman has more often than not closed out his year’s work at the DP World Tour Championship on The Earth course in Dubai, and his latest visit has him within touching distance of again claiming the Harry Vardon Trophy for topping the order of merit.
The mathematical equation is straightforward, far from rocket science. Only two players in the field, McIlroy and Thriston Lawrence, have the possibility of finishing up as number one; although the probability is stacked in McIlroy’s favour. For Lawrence to leapfrog to the top place, the South African would need to win and for McIlroy to finish worse than 11th. Pigs might fly, too.
Still, McIlroy has his sights set on closing the deal with destiny in his own hands. And a sixth career European Tour order of merit title would take him alongside Seve Ballesteros in the all-time listing and to two behind Colin Montgomerie.
“It’s a nice time to reflect on the year when you come (to Dubai) and you’re on the cusp of doing something that, to me, is still pretty meaningful, and just thinking about the body of work you’ve put together over the last 10 or 11 months,” claimed McIlroy, adding: “You don’t think about it during the year because you’re just going from week-to-week and trying to do your best every tournament that you show up to.
“But when you get to the business end of things at the end of the year, you start to or, realise at least I’ve put together a year that I’m pretty proud of, even if it hasn’t culminated in some of the things that I’ve wanted to achieve. But it’s still been an incredibly consistent year, and I’ve been proud of that … if I were to win the Race to Dubai for a sixth time, that would be a really cool achievement for me.”
In reflective mood on a season which brought three wins – in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, the Zurich Classic (in tandem with Shane Lowry) and the Wells Fargo – but also included a number of near-misses, most dramatically and emotionally at the US Open, McIlroy remarked: “Incredibly consistent again. I’ve been really proud of that over the last few years. But then at the same time, thinking about the ones that got away, I could be sitting up here with a fifth Major title and I am not. So that stings and that’s something that I have to come to terms with but at the same time I’ve got plenty more opportunities in the future.
“I really just tried to focus on the positives this year of consistently performing at the highest level. You know, still having three wins with an opportunity to get a fourth here this week, to win another Race to Dubai title … did I achieve every goal I set for myself this year? Probably not. But I still consider it a successful season. It would be a pass. It wouldn’t be a pass with flying colours. Probably an eight,” said McIlroy of his self-assessment.
Come the 2024 season which he will kick off again in Dubai in January, most likely with a sixth Race to Dubai title, McIlroy will be doing so with an adjusted and reduced playing schedule that will see him omit a number of the regular PGA Tour tournaments from his itinerary. His first appearance in Europe won’t come until the Scottish Open ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush and he has also committed to the Amgen Irish Open at The K Club ahead of the BMW PGA at Wentworth.
“I’m knocking on it a little bit. I’ve got the grey hairs to prove it. At 35, and I’ve been on tour for 17 or 18 years, look, I’m not slowing down at all, but I just have to take care of myself and take care of my body a little bit more, and 27 events this year is maybe a touch too many. If I can trim it back down to 22 or 23, I think that would be good for me in the long run,” said McIlroy.
Purse: €9.5 million (€2.85m to the winner).
Where: Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
The course: The Earth Course – 7,706 yards Par 72 – is a Greg Norman-design that manages to integrate lush fairways and copious water features/hazards on a desert landscape. The Great White Shark once described the stretch of four finishing holes from the 15th as the “most challenging mile” in golf which can be taken with a degree of hyperbole. Nevertheless, it is a challenging finish, especially the risk-reward Par 5 18th hole which features a meandering brook which effectively divides the fairway into two options for the player off the tee.
The field: Definitely plenty of star quality in the limited 50-man field with world number three McIlroy providing the X-factor in the final event of the European Tour’s season. The tournament offers significant financial incentives, while the other sideshow will focus on the 10 players who will earn PGA Tour cards stateside for next season, with Tom McKibbin (currently 11th on that list) in need of a big week.
Quote-Unquote: “I’m knocking on the door of getting in the top 100 (in the world) again, and getting in the US PGA and qualifying for The Open championship. Those are the level of tournaments where I want to play. I’ve had, I’m not going to say a frustrating career, but I’ve always been on the cusp of something, and now to kick down that door and get in these events, its massive for me” – Paul Waring whose win in last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship has brought life- and career-changing opportunities for the 39-year-old Englishman.
Irish in the field: Rory McIlroy – a two-time winner of the tournament – has Thriston Lawrence for company in the opening round (8.45am Irish time); Tom McKibbin, with the added incentive of locking down his PGA Tour card, is paired with Jordan Smith (7.20am); while Shane Lowry is paired with Frederic Lecroix (6.25am).
Betting: Rory McIlroy is the market leader at 7/2 with in-form Tyrrell Hatton – 1st-2nd in his last two outings – rate 11/2 and Tommy Fleetwod, on home turf effectively, a 15/2 chance … Thorbjorn Olesen is worth a look at 20s while Tom McKibbin is an each-way shout at 33/1.
On TV: Live on Sky Sports (live coverage from 7am).